Labor and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation are tied on 28% of the primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll, with the Liberal–National Coalition trailing on 23%. The survey involved 1,087 Australians.
Compared with September, Labor’s support fell by one percentage point, while One Nation gained three points and the Coalition rose one point. The Greens remained unchanged on 12%.
The findings come amid growing pressure on the Albanese government over household finances. Asked to identify the main cause of rising living costs, 32% of respondents nominated government spending. That reflects respondents’ perceptions, rather than an economic finding about the causes of inflation.
One Nation’s stronger primary vote presents a challenge for both established political blocs. However, equal national support does not automatically translate into equal parliamentary representation or an equal chance of forming government.
Australia’s preferential voting system, the distribution of support across individual electorates and subsequent preference flows all influence election outcomes. The poll therefore provides a snapshot of voting intentions, rather than a prediction of the next election result.
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